There is a wisdom in studying the one flower, for in its intricate details lies the understanding of the whole forest.
One of my smartest friends is a hedge fund manager. He refuses to answer big questions like, “What do you think the stock market is going to do?”
His point is that he has no clue, just like everyone else. It’s too complex to predict.
However, if you ask him about a specific stock within his portfolio… It has been on his watchlist for years, he has written about it in his letters to investors, he understands how the company makes money, why it is mispriced, and he has developed thoughtful expectations for its future cash flows.
Even if he turns out to be wrong, you can spot the mistake because he lays his thinking out clearly for you to see. We both learn from this.
So, when someone asks for my opinion on something, I usually reply with a version of: Show me the deal, I’ll show you the structure I like. Because every “deal” is different.
If the question is small enough, I may be able to help. If not, I can quickly say that.
Coincidentally, over the days that I was working on this essay, I had three conversations with friends where big questions came up:
- One was about buying a house vs. renting.
- Another was talking about a big job change.
- One asked for my opinion on his breakup.
The idea is the same: It depends on their specific situation.
The most important thing to highlight is that I have no clue what’s best for them.
But, I could probably work with them to come up with more manageable questions.
Instead of framing it as “Should I buy a house or rent?” we can ask smaller questions like:
- How much does the apartment you like cost?
- How much does the house you like cost?
- Does your couch fit in it? Do you need a different couch?
- Can you comfortably afford it?
- How far is it from work?
- How far is it from the grocery store?
In most cases, once you actually go through the small questions of a real scenario, you realize you are smarter than you thought and what to do becomes clearer.
The friend with the big job change was stressed because it could mean living in Minnesota 1-2 months a year. I asked, “What’s the compensation?” He will find out what the offer is in a few weeks.
Well, then there’s no reason to stress yet because until you have the details, there is no deal. You can come up with a range of realistic values you would accept and reject. But there is no sense in borrowing trouble early. And he has the leverage of a good job already.
The friend going thru the breakup told me the story over 15 minutes or so and asked for my opinion. Now, there wasn’t enough time for him to go read Evolutionary Psychology by David Buss, which would have given him all the answers. But, I did ask him some questions, like “Do you want to be with someone who is fickle?” and “Obviously, there is nothing for you to do today, so what can you do?” (Go play golf.)
Excluding breakups — by then it’s too late — small questions are great for relationships. The clarity theme, including laying out your thinking, can be shockingly helpful in communication, which reduces the likelihood of misunderstandings or misinterpretations.
This turns out to be a good way to ask questions, too. If someone is genuine, the person will appreciate it. If the person is trying to hide something, he will find it harder to wiggle out of small questions.
The phrase I like for this idea is: The ocean is made of drops.
See also:
- Keep Your Identity Small (Paul Graham)
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